What is a Theory of Change in a Project Proposal?

In some project proposals, specifically for the UK or European donors, the applicants are expected to have a theory of change in place. If not otherwise specified, you are expected to write one or two sentences about your theory of change. But what is a theory of change in the context of a project application and what should be covered by it?

A theory of change is very similar to your mission statement and expresses what you aim to achieve with your work and which impact you expect to have. It does not always have to be for the entire organization but can also be only for a project or program. Many times it is developed backward, meaning that a goal is formulated first and the strategy to achieve this goal is developed subsequently. A good theory of change will answer the following six questions:

1. Who do you want to influence your project/program/work? Who is your target population?
2. What do you want to achieve with your work? What are your expected results?
3. When will you achieve your expected results? What is your timeline?
4. How are you planning to achieve this? What is your strategy?
5. Where will you work? How are the circumstances and context of your work?
6. Why do you think your work will be successful? What are the assumptions that lead you to your strategy?

Why does a donor want you to have a theory of change?

Your theory of change is a good base to start planning the entire project and can be helpful to keep you on track with your proposed results. It helps the donor to understand the reasoning behind your proposed strategy and makes it easier to see if there are any logical pitfalls. By having to formulate clear assumptions, you have to show if you really know the situation on the ground and are able to make logical deductions. It can also help the donor to develop an evaluation strategy with you for your project.